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The second leg of the Carabao Cup semifinals take place this week, with Aston Villa vs. Leicester City on Tuesday and Manchester City vs. Manchester United on Wednesday (stream matches on ESPN+). Here’s what to look for:
ASTON VILLA vs. LEICESTER CITY (Jan. 28, 7:45 p.m. GMT/2:45 p.m. ET on ESPN+)
This tie should really be out of sight already. Going into the first leg of their semifinal against Aston Villa, Leicester were imperious, with only Manchester City and Liverpool having beaten them in the previous three months. For Villa on the other hand, that game was sandwiched between a defeat to Championship side Fulham in the FA Cup and that 6-1 hammering at the hands of City in the league. They didn’t have a recognised striker, meaning they had fudge to a forward line together from three wingers and had their third-choice keeper between the sticks.
But Brendan Rodgers fiddled unnecessarily with his formation, playing a 3-5-2 and erring (by his own admission) by picking an out-of-form Youri Tielemans in the heart of midfield in place of the injured Wilfred Ndidi, instead of Hamza Choudhury. They could have won comfortably and made the second leg at Villa Park a formality, but the final scoreline was 1-1 and now Villa are a different proposition.
They have a goalkeeper of experience and calibre in Pepe Reina, plus new signing Mbwana Samatta is set to start up front, allowing Jack Grealish to revert to a more comfortable position. They have been able to settle more with the three-at-the-back system still in comparative infancy in the first leg, and come into this game having taken four crucial points from games against Watford and Brighton.
And furthermore, Leicester have doubts over Jamie Vardy, who missed their FA Cup win over Brentford with a glute strain, and while Kelechi Iheanacho is a fine deputy Rodgers is clearly desperate to have Vardy available.
“Will he be 100%? He might be 80%,” said Rodgers this week. “But I’d rather an 80% Jamie Vardy [than none at all].”
In short, a draw in that first leg looked like a missed opportunity at the time, but it does even more so now, with Leicester in a weaker position and Villa stronger. That might be bad news for the Foxes, but it’s terrific news for neutrals because this is a tie poised beautifully, the scores equal but with the better side playing away, both side desperate to get to their first major final in years.
Leicester last played such an occasion in 2000, when they won this tournament, and while Villa got to the 2015 FA Cup final, so much has happened to them since that it feels much longer ago. If the other semifinal is a foregone conclusion, this should be a thriller.
Prediction: Aston Villa 1-2 Leicester (2-3 on aggregate after extra-time).
MANCHESTER CITY vs. MANCHESTER UNITED (Jan. 29, 7:45 p.m. GMT/2:45 p.m. ET on ESPN+)
Ah, but is it a foregone conclusion? Will we get a contest at the Etihad on Wednesday evening? Perhaps we will. After all, United won their last game 6-0, whereas City could only win 4-0. Advantage United, right?
Some straw-clutching, perhaps, but it isn’t entirely unreasonable to think that Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s men could pull off something unlikely. For a start, it’s only 3-1: the extent to which City were superior in the first half of the first leg perhaps clouds our memories on this a little. They were rampant and, perhaps a little like Leicester, they might be disappointed they didn’t kill the tie off completely. It was 3-0 at the break but it could easily have been double that, and United will have been delighted that they eventually escaped with only a two-goal deficit.
So for the sake of those of us who would like to see a competitive night in Manchester, here are a few reasons to think that United could at the very least make a game of it: United have already won at City once this season, that game at the start of December when they counter-attacked perfectly and were 2-0 up over a punchdrunk City at the break; this is more important to United, their chances of winning the EFL Cup having a greater bearing on the success or otherwise of their season than it will City’s; the City defence is far from impregnable, its vulnerabilities exposed by such attacking titans as Crystal Palace and Port Vale in recent weeks.
That’s before you consider some slightly more ephemeral considerations, like Pep Guardiola’s occasional tendency to overthink things in big games, and complicate their side when it should really be simple. Who knows what he is cooking up inside his head, when in reality he could just put a reasonably strong team out there and tell them to play.
Then there’s the odd habit this United team have of occasionally looking superb, in among the masses of mediocrity and incompetence: there’s that win at the Etihad back in December, for example, or beating Tottenham at home a few days earlier, or even still being the only team to take any points off Liverpool this season.
Despite all of this, logic suggest that City will do the necessary and seal their place at Wembley. They should be far too strong for United, even if the red side of Manchester performs to their capacity. But there remains just enough to suggest that the unlikely is not the impossible.
Prediction: Manchester City 2-1 Manchester United (5-2 on aggregate).