Women’s Olympic soccer group-by-group preview: Predictions, must-see games, more

The United States women’s national soccer team is in action at the 2024 Olympic soccer tournament in Paris, the team’s first competitive games with Emma Hayes at the helm as head coach. She takes over following USWNT’s worst finish in World Cup history last year, when it was eliminated by Sweden in the round of 16.

The USWNT won four of the first five Olympics to feature women’s soccer, but it is in search of a first gold medal since the 2012 London Games, having earned a bronze medal at the Tokyo Games in 2021.

World champions Spain are one of the favorites, while defending gold medalists Canada could also be in the mix. Unlike the men’s Olympic soccer tournament, there are no U23 age restrictions, so a host of top talent will be on show.

The top two teams from each group and the two best third-place teams reach the knockout rounds. So here’s what you can expect as the tournament begins on July 25 and finishes Aug. 10.

GROUP A

Group A is one of the toughest to predict. There are no debutants — each team have featured in the tournament at least twice, bringing a degree of familiarity to proceedings — but it is a fascinating and competitive field.

Reigning champions Canada are aiming to defend their title but have to do so without the retired Christine Sinclair. Hosts France, still seeking their first piece of major silverware, bring a heightened level of intensity and their home advantage and recent success of making the Euro 2022 semifinals should make them contenders. Meanwhile, Colombia’s run to the World Cup quarterfinals demonstrated their prowess last summer, and they are sure to challenge for a place in the knockout rounds again.

Even New Zealand, though historically lagging behind, are beginning to show promise and could surprise the more established teams, which adds an unpredictable element. With quality players such as Marie-Antoinette Katoto, Linda Caicedo, Ali Riley and Jordyn Huitema on show, Group A may well have some twists and turns in it.

Player to watch: Linda Caicedo

After dazzling at the 2023 World Cup aged just 18, Real Madrid and Colombia forward Caicedo is poised capture the fans’ attention at this Olympics as well. Her exceptional vision, skill and finishing make her one to watch in this group. We’ve seen the best defences in the world struggle to contain the youngster and we can expect no less in this tournament.

Must-see match

Despite the France-Canada rivalry, Colombia vs. France could be the most exciting matchup between two ruthless and physical attacks. The pair boast incredible talent across the pitch and while France will be confident, Colombia have shown that they are a force to be reckoned with after knocking Germany out of the World Cup last year. Prepare for fireworks when these two meet in Lyon on July 25.

Prediction: 1. France, 2. Canada, 3. Colombia, 4. New Zealand

France’s talented and experienced squad is likely to top the group. The battle for second will be fierce, with Canada likely to edge out Colombia, although the South Americans could cause a potential surprise. New Zealand just lack the depth and clinical edge to finish above fourth. — Emily Keogh

GROUP B

We won’t be accepting any group of death cliché here, but suffice to say this group could go any number of ways. Casual fans might dismiss Zambia given the pedigree of the United States, Germany and (to an extent more recently) Australia, but they would do so at their own peril. Zambia might have the best player in the tournament in forward Barbra Banda, who is lighting up the NWSL, and Germany just lost star midfielder Lena Oberdorf to injury. Add in U.S. and Australia teams that have shown some inconsistencies, and this group really is a toss-up.

The USWNT will garner the most global attention after its fall from grace at the 2023 World Cup and the recent arrival of new head coach Emma Hayes. Failing to win a gold medal an achievement that feels like a longshot considering the team’s state of transition would mark the first time since the Olympics began including women’s soccer in 1996 that the Americans didn’t win either a World Cup or the Olympics the following year.

Germany, the 2016 gold medalists, are back in the Olympics after missing the previous edition entirely because of Europe’s previous double jeopardy qualifying system based around World Cup placement.

Australia, meanwhile, must navigate the Olympics without star striker Sam Kerr, who tore her ACL in January. Australia finished fourth at the 2021 Olympics and last year’s World Cup, which the country co-hosted.

Player to watch: Barbra Banda

Three years ago, the Zambia forward became the first player in Olympic history to score hat tricks in back-to-back games. Today, she is the co-leading scorer in the NWSL with 12 goals in 12 games. Hayes called Banda “the most in-form striker in world football,” and few would argue.

Must-see match

Even without Kerr, the July 31 group finale between Australia and the United States could be a doozy. These teams have played some wild games in their recent history, including a rollercoaster of a bronze-medal match three years ago that the Americans won, 4-3 after leading 4-1 at one point. Both teams could enter this match in need of a result to guarantee advancement.

Prediction: 1. Germany, 2. USA, 3. Zambia, 4. Australia

This is the Root for Chaos group. I see the USWNT and Zambia getting into an open-ended transition game in the opener that ends as a high-scoring draw. Germany beats Australia in the other opener then picks up a point against the Americans, as Zambia and Australia also draw on matchday two. That leaves the final matchday looking like Germany (4), U.S. (2), Zambia (2), Australia (2). Zambia then gets a point off Germany, learning from that pre-2023 World Cup friendly they played, and the U.S. narrowly edges Australia to go through as well. Zambia then hopes to advance as a third-place team. — Jeff Kassouf

play

What can the USWNT take away from 1-0 win vs. Mexico?

Herculez Gomez and Kasey Keller discuss the USWNT’s 1-0 win over Mexico.

GROUP C

There is nowhere for teams to hide when it comes to women’s Olympic soccer, but Group C is incredibly tough for the talent and experience it packs even by the tournament’s standards.

World champions Spain are the headliners, having picked up their first piece of silverware at the 2023 World Cup, and have continued to flex their muscles in recent months despite upheaval off the pitch. La Roja will be favourites to go all the way in France, but history is not on their side, as no team has ever won the World Cup and Olympic gold in successive years.

Japan come into the Olympics in good form and could surprise a few, as they did at the World Cup, but their place in the knockouts could come down to their match against Brazil. The two sides have met for three friendlies over the past nine months, with each claiming a win before a draw at the SheBelieves Cup in April.

Africa’s most successful women’s team, Nigeria, round out the quartet. Although their record at Olympic tournaments isn’t glittering, the Super Eagles turned heads at the World Cup and played smart football to shock multiple teams en route to a penalty shootout loss to England in the round of 16. Nigeria are not a team to take lightly, but they haven’t been setting the world alight in recent games and could be viewed as fodder for the other three nations.